PAPERS AND POLICY NOTES
Papers accepted for publication
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Is It Just About Sustainability? Politics At Home and the Trade Impacts of Voluntary Standards Abroad. Global Environmental Politics. 2025
Papers under review
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Input-Output Linkages, Subnational Politics and the Political Economy of Green Trade in Brazil (Global Policy)
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Mapping Forest Commitments in Preferential Trade Agreements: The Forest Provisions Depth Index and Its Policy Applications (Contexto Internacional)
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Environmental goods trade networks and the reach of environmental provisions in preferential trade agreements (The World Economy)
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The Displacement-To-Cbam Ratio: Measuring Carbon Offshoring And Redesigning Border Carbon Adjustment (Climate Policy)
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Do Owners of Certified Assets Behave Differently in Politics? (Regulations & Governance)
Works in progress
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Predicting Non-Compliance with NDCs: A Predictive Model Based on Climate Finance Flows
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Helping Close the Climate Cleavage: When is Unilateralism Acceptable Abroad and At Home?
Policy Notes
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Coordinating Global Efforts on Deforestation-free Supply Chains. T20 Brief.
Op-Eds
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Questões da governança climática internacional híbrida. Valor Econômico
PARTICIPATION IN COP 30 PANELS
Professor Rodrigo Cezar represented the project at the UNFCCC COP 30 in Belém, speaking in two high-level panels in the Blue Zone. As a member of the Academic Council for the United Nations Forum on Sustainability Standards (UNFSS), professor Cezar shared findings and insights from the project to inform debates on sustainability standards. A central message addressed the necessity of using credible counterfactuals to measure the impact of sustainability standards. Without independent, data-based evaluations, global trade risks mistaking general market trends for the actual impact of sustainability certifications. The project advocated for the integration of scientific evaluation from the start of climate programs to ensure that voluntary sustainability standards (VSS) and public policies genuinely shift environmental outcomes.
Panels
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Trading Sustainably: How Standards Build Resilient Markets - 14 November, Standards Pavillion.
Organized by UNCTAD and the UNFSS, the panel gathered leaders from international organizations (ISO, UNIDO, FAO, ITU), academia (KU Leuven, FGV RI) and civil society (WBSCD, FSC Indigenous Foundation, Bonsucro) to discuss how international standards can help countries and businesses meet their sustainability commitments while staying competitive and connected to global markets.
Access the panel recording here.
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Powershoring, Green Trade Corridors and Sustainability Standards - 15 November, RCF Pavillion.
Organized by FGV RI and the Climate and Society Institute (iCS), the panel explored how powershoring strategies, green trade corridors and voluntary sustainability standards (VSS) can drive the decarbonization of global value chains.
PRE-COP PUBLIC CONSULTATION IN BRAZIL
The event Pre-COP Stakeholder Consultation: Challenges of Unilateral Measures and How to Overcome Them took place on October 17, 2025, from 9:00 am to 6:00 pm, at the FGV School of International Relations in São Paulo.
In an increasingly fractured global trade order, the European Union’s unilateral sustainability regulations—particularly the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)—are reshaping supply chains and raising new challenges for producers, governments, and civil society in Brazil. This consultation will convene key actors to debate how to adapt to these measures, how to minimize negative impacts, and how to seize opportunities for more sustainable trade. Special attention will be given to the tensions between unilateral regulation, domestic political responses, and prospects for renewed international cooperation.
Central Questions
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How can Brazilian sectors remain competitive under fragmented sustainability standards?
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Who bears the costs of compliance, and how should they be shared across borders?
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Do the EUDR and CBAM genuinely incentivize sustainable production, or do they exacerbate inequalities?
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How do these measures affect vulnerable communities, such as traditional peoples and regions dependent on primary exports?
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What governance mechanisms—national or multilateral—are still relevant in a fractured order?
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What forms of cross-actor coordination (state, private sector, NGOs, international organizations) are most viable under current geopolitical uncertainty?
Download the full report (Portuguese) here.